You are correct. I do visit at my discretion. Instinct tells me to question the motives of anyone that seems to have an agenda...and you sir seem to have an agenda (or maybe its a cause), which prompted me to comment that your posts are "not typical" to most of the other posts on this site.




Credible to me are people that have made a career out out of participating in and analyzing potential outcomes in the real estate market.




Oh no, I would not be so arrogant as to proclaim potential future outcomes as fact and foregone conclusion. As such, I would not claim that July 2008 or any other date is the bottom. Anyone who makes such a claim is foolish IMO.

I hold folks who publish market analysis to a higher standard and am not the least bit impressed with 'credentials'. Unbiased selection of information resources and correct analysis trump any other assessment.

Quite a number of seasoned professional analysts did not detect a 'bubble' in housing values in this and other countries, and in fact, argued that no such thing had developed. Sad if you used their analysis for investment decision support.

The arcane world of derivatives has gotten very little popular attention, and the leveraged risks being made in the financial centers, and the attendant risks we are all exposed to as a result, is rarely brought to light. I make a continuing attempt to counter that trend.



My "agenda" has been made clear from the first time I published my opinions on the credit markets and their relationship to the financial crisis now at hand. And it has been made plain in many, many posts on this site. Very simply, I'd like as many of my friends and family to remain solvent as possible.

People who have reacted to the information I have provided over the last three years have NOT lost money on their homes, have NOT seen their 401k and other investments dwindle, and are thoroughly prepared to weather the recession, however deep it becomes.

Others are welcome to bring whatever viewpoint and observation they choose to these discussions, but opinions are only as good as the information from which they're developed---so come prepared with data if you disagree with what is posted here!

Never mind...way too tiresome for me to get into one of these internet discussions. Maybe over a beer sometime.

So you've got time and attention for a casual slap, but can't muster the enthusiasm for an actual discussion? That's about the way I figured it, Cycle.

You are right again FLB.

I sure hope my property taxes reflect this decline. Something tells me it will be the opposite... taxes going up.

I'll find out next month.

My brother's reals estate agent tells him that the $125,000 drop in price isn't enough in this market (more than 20%). But the city thinks the value went up 6%, according to his tax assessment.

Seems to be going around...

Move on out to California. That cannot happen here since 1979.

How's that working out for the state budget?

Well let's see.... Not so well. They're some $15b in the red for this fiscal year and they don't have a budget yet. California actually has a lower total tax rate based upon per capita income than the national average yet it has this perception of being a high tax state. Go figure. There's a stalemate in the legislature because that same initiative that made property taxes that only go up 2% a year (less than inflation) and must come down whenever real estate tanks (at least for recent purchases) required a 2/3 super-majority to pass the budget or consider taxes. One-third of the legislature dictates what will happen. I'm thinking that should be closer to a 55% or 60% super-majority.

Difficult to ascertain exactly how the state's budget crisis affects me.....

Could be like our state. While the governor is saying we are in the red, we all have to work through this together, we have to cut spending and/or raise revenues, it'll be tough, oh and by the way I'm giving the STate Pensioners a big cost of living raise that you have to pay for as well.
But he thinks his term in office has been successful. Not sure who deems success, but it really isn't us commoners.

But I digress, sorry.

I don't think you are going to see much a drop in taxes as home values fall. As the housing market tanks, that is a bunch of revenue out the door for the local and state economies.

WM, you sure you don't live in Illinois?

Okay, California is slighty above the average collecting 10.3% of per capita income. If that was raised by 1.5%, they'd collect 11.5 11.8%, an increase of $350.00 per capita per annum and still rank sixth. This would close $10b of the $15b budget gap. The rest would need to be made up from spending cuts.

Let the lynching mobs come after me...

It will. See above