Home prices fall by steepest rate ever in May
Closely-watched S&P/Case-Shiller home price index off 15.8 percent
BREAKING NEWS
The Associated Press
updated 8:16 a.m. CT, Tues., July. 29, 2008

NEW YORK - A closely-watched housing index shows home prices fell by the steepest rate ever in May, as the housing slump continued to deepen nationwide.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index, released Tuesday, is off 15.8 percent for May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The narrower 10-city index has fallen 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that’s happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.

The steepest decline in the index is in Las Vegas, where prices fell 28.4 percent in the month. Miami is a close second, with prices down 28.3 percent.

© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Well, that's refreshing. All of the crap holdings we taxpayers had forced upon us are dropping in value.

Some zip codes in my area are down 40% to 50% year over year.

Prices will continue to fall as there is an abundance of homes on the market, and now with more stingent borrowing requirements, fewer qualified buyers.

What I don't get is how this is being played in the media. Some markets cratered with close to 30% declines and some are posting 7% like here in Atlanta. That's a pretty BIG difference. I don't like to see a 7% decline, but it does not really paint an accurate picture for the broader market when they talk about this average of 15.8%. It's the average, but what the hell does that mean. 7% sucks. 28% is devastating. Seems like fear mongering for ratings to me...

I would agree with the inaccuracy these numbers can portray. This is a large diverse country to average such information. But instead of using the information to determine your house value, I think they are using this information more to show the inherent loss factor for mortgage lenders.

Just the opposite, Chap. The media has been ignoring this information for months, and when it could no longer ignore it, has soft-pedaled it and explained it away.

Now that the carnage can no longer be ignored, some of the relevant data IS being reported, albeit rarely with enough supporting information for it to be properly understood.

The decline in housing prices to date, while historically significant, is but a 'down payment' on what will finally be the 'bottom'.

If you REALLY think 28% is 'devastating', ponder the impact of a price collapse in the 50% - 60% range. That's where we're going. (The documentation for that statement is all over these pages---do a search.)

Short sellings number 1 cheerleader has spoken.

Is FLB stumping for his own personal profit just like those guys that practice pump and dump?

I don't think so. There are serious problems in the markets as a whole.

Who said that? Not me. The continual recitation of bad news and analysis on a boating site is not typical.

"...albeit rarely with enough supporting information for it to be properly understood."


This was my point.

I agree we will see further declines, particulary in ridculously overheated markets like Miami, LA etc...They are out of line with fundamentals. They must return. I just don't believe the entire country was out of line with fundamentals, or at least not so drastically. Though I'm sure we will feel some of the pain of truly speculative markets, particulary since it has affected the credit system so greatly.

It also is not typical to have a complete section dedicated to such recitation. Also, these threads do not appear in the common listing of new topics.
It is just a bit of diversification on the admin's part to maintain a strong and interested base.
Reviewing the information found here and what is being said in the media, then reviewing actuals, I find the gloom and doom being reported to be a little more accurate.

duplo posto

Every day I read various views and analysis on what may happen in the real estate market. There are many credible people making markedly different conclusions than the outcomes described in many of the articals quoted here. I guess where you live and what you have experienced influence which side of the fence you lean on.

Couple of observations, Cycle. First, the "Finance" forums of this website are thoroughly segregated from the "boating" topics. If you're reading these posts, it's because you choose to. Second, this site is the private property of the owners, and is provided as a complimentary service. Visit at your own discretion.



Credible? And what, in your view, provides credibility?

For my part, I look to verifiable information and historical accuracy when making judgements on news sources. Which fact had traditional news outlets seriously discounted (and eventually ignored) some number of years back.

It was the summer of 2004 when I was moved to look into the credit markets. I had recently sold a home in NJ for a marvelous figure, taken a new executive position in Philly, and was shopping for a mortgage for a nice home in Bucks County. No fewer than five mortgage brokers were contacted, and I was BOMBARDED with offers for crappy, irresponsible loans. No-doc, neg-am, 80/20, cash back, JUNK! For the record, I was successful in finding a very low-interest rate 15 year loan---but it isn't what ANYBODY wanted to sell me.

And so I began my research. And it led me to the derivatives market, and the alchemy of the Wall Street lads. And thence to revisit our basic financial structure and history; the design of fractional reserve banking and the history of central banks.

And the conclusions I reached in the fall of 2005 quite literally changed my life. Within six months I sold all of our modest real estate holdings and moved into a rental home, bought a small business with an exceptional amount of tooling, moved our accounts to a very well-capitalized bank, and moved assets out of US$-denominated issues.

And I began writing about what I had discovered. It was a pretty lonely point of view in the winter of 2005. But it wasn't mistaken, as it turns out.

There are many fortunes about to be lost in this accelerating event. Several of the folks in my immediate circle have positioned themselves not to be among the victims. My purpose here is to communicate a view that is at odds with that portrayed by a manipulated media machine. If it turns out that July of 2008 is the 'bottom', you can take your curtain call whenever you choose.

You are correct. I do visit at my discretion. Instinct tells me to question the motives of anyone that seems to have an agenda...and you sir seem to have an agenda (or maybe its a cause), which prompted me to comment that your posts are "not typical" to most of the other posts on this site.




Credible to me are people that have made a career out out of participating in and analyzing potential outcomes in the real estate market.




Oh no, I would not be so arrogant as to proclaim potential future outcomes as fact and foregone conclusion. As such, I would not claim that July 2008 or any other date is the bottom. Anyone who makes such a claim is foolish IMO.

I hold folks who publish market analysis to a higher standard and am not the least bit impressed with 'credentials'. Unbiased selection of information resources and correct analysis trump any other assessment.

Quite a number of seasoned professional analysts did not detect a 'bubble' in housing values in this and other countries, and in fact, argued that no such thing had developed. Sad if you used their analysis for investment decision support.

The arcane world of derivatives has gotten very little popular attention, and the leveraged risks being made in the financial centers, and the attendant risks we are all exposed to as a result, is rarely brought to light. I make a continuing attempt to counter that trend.



My "agenda" has been made clear from the first time I published my opinions on the credit markets and their relationship to the financial crisis now at hand. And it has been made plain in many, many posts on this site. Very simply, I'd like as many of my friends and family to remain solvent as possible.

People who have reacted to the information I have provided over the last three years have NOT lost money on their homes, have NOT seen their 401k and other investments dwindle, and are thoroughly prepared to weather the recession, however deep it becomes.

Others are welcome to bring whatever viewpoint and observation they choose to these discussions, but opinions are only as good as the information from which they're developed---so come prepared with data if you disagree with what is posted here!

Never mind...way too tiresome for me to get into one of these internet discussions. Maybe over a beer sometime.

So you've got time and attention for a casual slap, but can't muster the enthusiasm for an actual discussion? That's about the way I figured it, Cycle.

You are right again FLB.

I sure hope my property taxes reflect this decline. Something tells me it will be the opposite... taxes going up.

I'll find out next month.

My brother's reals estate agent tells him that the $125,000 drop in price isn't enough in this market (more than 20%). But the city thinks the value went up 6%, according to his tax assessment.

Seems to be going around...

Move on out to California. That cannot happen here since 1979.

How's that working out for the state budget?

Well let's see.... Not so well. They're some $15b in the red for this fiscal year and they don't have a budget yet. California actually has a lower total tax rate based upon per capita income than the national average yet it has this perception of being a high tax state. Go figure. There's a stalemate in the legislature because that same initiative that made property taxes that only go up 2% a year (less than inflation) and must come down whenever real estate tanks (at least for recent purchases) required a 2/3 super-majority to pass the budget or consider taxes. One-third of the legislature dictates what will happen. I'm thinking that should be closer to a 55% or 60% super-majority.

Difficult to ascertain exactly how the state's budget crisis affects me.....