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#441858 - 10/25/08 07:28 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: trooplewis]
Finger Lakes Boater Administrator Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 12/17/02
Posts: 8398
Loc: Sammamish, Washington
Originally Posted By: trooplewis
Ford stock is at $1.89 today. If oil stays down (and I think it will, for those of you old enough remember the 1973 and 1979 embargos), Ford may be a good buy. Even at $7/share it looked pretty attractive last march


None of the 'big 3' is a going concern as of now. Pension and medical liabilities alone are enough to bankrupt them, let alone the obscene cash bleed of the last three years.

The $25 Billion bailout gave them breathing space, but it will take outright nationalization to save 'em. Given the number of companies Hank is buying, that is certainly not off the table. But from a fundamental outlook, Ford is done. There are other investments that will return more.

I liked your oil call, though! wink
_________________________
"Corporations have been enthroned, and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until the wealth is aggregated in the hands of a few, and the Republic is destroyed." -- Abraham Lincoln "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln -

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#441962 - 10/25/08 08:41 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Finger Lakes Boater]
trooplewis Offline
Admiral

Registered: 11/10/06
Posts: 3428
Loc: San Diego
In San Diego 3 months ago, when premium gas was running $4.54, Diesel was priced about 79 cents higher than premium, at $5.29


Today, even though oil has fallen 50%, San Diego gas prices are still hovering at about $3.10/gallon.

BUT diesel is only 2 cents a gallon more than REGULAR grade gas.

Remember all the excuses why diesel jumped up higher than regular gas...so why now is it priced so low?

Maybe the drop in diesel prices was commensurate with the drop in a bbl of oil, but the gas companies have decided to stick it to the average consumer and not drop the prices at the pump as much as they could have.


BOHICA!

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#442070 - 10/26/08 07:56 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: trooplewis]
BillyB Offline
Admiral

Registered: 10/29/04
Posts: 7502
Loc: Peoria, Illinois
Uh-oh, troop. You are about to get smacked by Admin. You are not allowed to say that:
Quote:
but the gas companies have decided to stick it to the average consumer and not drop the prices at the pump as much as they could have.
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#442113 - 10/27/08 06:31 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: BillyB]
D-Rod Offline
Admiral

Registered: 06/25/05
Posts: 7542
Originally Posted By: BillyB
Uh-oh, troop. You are about to get smacked by Admin. You are not allowed to say that:
Quote:
but the gas companies have decided to stick it to the average consumer and not drop the prices at the pump as much as they could have.
pc


Troop, if it makes you feel better, it's $2.21 here in Kansas. Highest we got was just shy of $4 a gallon.

Demand destruction in these parts is supposedly severe, although much of the driving in this area is optional/not needed.

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#442376 - 10/28/08 09:42 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: D-Rod]
deepv Offline
Safety Officer
Admiral

Registered: 03/17/04
Posts: 6678
Loc: SoCal
Diesel is down so far because the demand for jet fuel is down, IMO. When home heating oil demand goes up (didn't the NE just get a foot of snow?), the price of diesel will too.

Where's MarkHB on this topic?
_________________________
72% of fatal boat accidents are caused by
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#442378 - 10/28/08 09:52 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: deepv]
firecadet613 Offline
Serenity Again
Admiral

Registered: 07/16/06
Posts: 1142
Loc: Brownsburg, IN
1.99 here in Brownsburg today, cheapest in the state! 2.50/gal is the state average, and the cheapest in Indy is 2.14....

Not bad if you ask me!
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#442461 - 10/28/08 05:37 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: firecadet613]
Finger Lakes Boater Administrator Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 12/17/02
Posts: 8398
Loc: Sammamish, Washington
Current prices will save me nearly $500 on fuel this weekend. Timely events...
_________________________
"Corporations have been enthroned, and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until the wealth is aggregated in the hands of a few, and the Republic is destroyed." -- Abraham Lincoln "America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln -

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#442477 - 10/28/08 06:53 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Finger Lakes Boater]
WaterMutt Offline
Bilge Rat
Admiral

Registered: 01/14/04
Posts: 10339
Loc: Massachusetts
I never thought oil would fall like this, and it doesn't look like anything is going to bring it back any time soon. Bad call on my part.
This should be a huge wake-up call to the American public, but it isn't. Everyone is happy to see the low cost at the pumps, which is great and all, but the impending downturn this is signifying is being overlooked by most.
We're really in it deep, aren't we.....
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-Forest Gump


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#442499 - 10/28/08 10:10 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: WaterMutt]
MarkHB Offline
Dressed for dinner
Admiral

Registered: 09/12/03
Posts: 4926
Loc: CA
Don't count on it being low forever. Only whilst demand is down and remember that we import 1 to 1.5 million barrels of gas per day. The public will forget how high it can go.

Mark
I get my gas for free so who cares about the price of gas. I don't. wink


Edited by MarkHB (10/28/08 10:10 PM)
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#442544 - 10/29/08 10:06 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: MarkHB]
Waterdog Offline
Admiral

Registered: 07/27/04
Posts: 986
Loc: Athens, GA
I suspect the further the barrel price falls, the greater the rebound will be when (not "if") it comes. Short term, global and U.S. demand is down. The OPEC cuts did nothing to halt the slide. However, the long term fundamentals, as I understand them, support a huge and rapid upswing in price once the bottom occurs. Perhaps a double inverse oil ETF for the short term may provide some profits?
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#446905 - 12/04/08 12:12 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Waterdog]
trooplewis Offline
Admiral

Registered: 11/10/06
Posts: 3428
Loc: San Diego
Quote:
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) -- Oil tumbled below $44 a barrel Thursday and the average gallon of gasoline is now less than $1.80 nationally, both four year lows


They may be having some sort of "recession" in Saudi Arabia at this rate... Poor guys.
_________________________
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#446933 - 12/04/08 03:18 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: trooplewis]
deepv Offline
Safety Officer
Admiral

Registered: 03/17/04
Posts: 6678
Loc: SoCal
And in Russia too.
_________________________
72% of fatal boat accidents are caused by
boaters that haven't taken a safe boating course.

2001 Sea Ray Sundeck 190
5.0 EFI Alpha I,Generation 2
2002 4x4 LB Lariat CC F250, 7.3PSD


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#446934 - 12/04/08 03:49 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: deepv]
Indyboater Offline
Admiral

Registered: 01/19/03
Posts: 2302
Loc: Indianapolis
Can you imagine, when Exxon announces a 50% drop in revenues, and profits only at 5-6 Billion for the quarter?

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#446936 - 12/04/08 04:55 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Indyboater]
trooplewis Offline
Admiral

Registered: 11/10/06
Posts: 3428
Loc: San Diego
Yeah, the execs at Exxon will probably be asking for some of the bailout money...

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#446942 - 12/04/08 05:28 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: trooplewis]
jtheile Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 02/27/05
Posts: 1490
Loc: North Ridgeville, Ohio
Originally Posted By: trooplewis
Yeah, the execs at Exxon will probably be asking for some of the bailout money...


...and they will probably get it.
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Joe
Four Winns 225 Sundowner

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