FLB: Slightly off topic but do you smell a 10/29/29 boiling again?

I don't think we'll necessarily see a cliff-dive from the stock market indices, if that's your question. Possible, certainly, but not at all certain.

Keep in mind that the period immediately after the stock market crash in '29 was NOTHING like the depression that followed, for reasons far beyond equity investment values.

It also bears keeping in mind that we, as a nation and as individuals, were SAVERS in 1929. We are now nearly universally DEBTORS, both individually and collectively---so we go into this thing on far dicier footing than in that not-so-distant episode.

One year ago, I projected a likelihood of a major recession and possible repeat of the long, slow grinding depression of the 30s. There was a far greater opportunity to avoid the worst of it then than now. And the longer the 'hide the sausage' shenanigans are allowed to continue, the sharper and deeper the trough will be.

A year ago my outlook for financials was dour. I'd categorize it as bleak (or worse) today.

When the choice was 8-Track or cassette I choose 8-Track.
When it was Beta or VHS, I went with Beta.
When it was Blue-Ray or the other, I went with the other.
When it was OS2 Warp or XP I went with OS2.

I have a perfect track record.

Now, if we can get the members of this board to back me financially
I will buy up all the oil futures I can. This will surely drive down the price of crude.

Are you all talking a huge correction all at once, or a slow decent?

Which market are you asking about?

Real Estate values have diminished faster than ever before measured in this country---with a significant portion of the causative inputs still to come.

Equity market indices are down significantly from their historic highs, but have not yet registered the credit crisis input (due in no small part to obvious "engineering").

The credit markets are in absolute disrepair, with major portions functionally illiquid.

They're all related, but the rate that failures in one area register in another is not immediately discernable.

Today's downgrades of the mono-line insurers is going to be huge---but whether later today or after next quarter's reporting period is hard to say.

I was refering to oil futures. I thought this thread was about crashing oil prices. Did I ask in the wrong spot?

Thanks for the clarification, 2suns. The topic had veered a bit and I didn't realize you were back on topic.

And I WISH I had an answer for your question---but my thesis, if true, could result in either scenario.

Where is your thesis, FLB. Did I miss it somewhere?

It will happen.

Little bit of news this afternoon makes me suspect a market-altering event COULD be happening.



This little announcement was accompanied by a >$6 spike in oil futures. hmmmmm

Coupled with the recent resignation of Admiral Fallon (one of the few LOUD voices against an attack on Iran) and the leak last week about senators 'considering' a press release over an Iran invasion, and you've got to at least consider the possibility that the resignations and the oil speculation are related.

Needless to say, and attack on Iran (by either the US or Israel) is going to have a very significant impact on the price of oil. Bears watching, guys...

What would be behind the motivation to lead the country to a new war front during the waining days of the current administration?

Dam good question, Cycle. I don't for one minute believe the cover story of fearing Iran's nuclear developments. But that's what's floating this rumor.

Posted about an hour ago on Asian Times is a pretty good analysis by a financial expert based in the US. Too political to post, but you should be able to find it on Google news without too much trouble if you're interested.

Contrary to the topic heading is this:

Oil prices surge

All on speculation and expectations.

Gas up $0.14 on the market today so far.

Gas prices were going up .05 at a blink of the eye before Memorial Day weekend and now they are the same price as they were Memorial Day weekend as of 7AM this morning. I'll see when I go home tonight if it is above $3.99.