Be careful around the 11900 level, if that beaks then the 11600 support level and if that breaks???? Well, all helll will break loose.

Mark

[enter toilet flushing sound here]

Depression by Independence Day??

Fallout Coming in 3 2 1???

If you mean is it time to buy, absolutely!

I'm smelling Dow below 9,000 by late August....

What are you buying, Mike?

As much cheap stock as I can find!

Too early to buy much of anything for me. I am short a few and do hold a couple of others long. Sitting on mostly cash for now.

Mark

GM? That's pretty dang cheap...if they survive. Otherwise it could end expensive...?

What are you buying now? (Or lately).

Not much lately, but always looking and always believe there's money to be made.

T-Bills and CD's from very conservative banks.

Other than my 401-K...and a couple of mutual funds...I am very conservative with my money.

So this quote, then, is just bluff and bluster.

It's fine to stand on the sidelines and toss in opinions---but don't mistake that for ACTING in the marketplace. MY opinion apparently differs from yours (I think it's a TERRIBLE time to buy long positions in equities) and I am actively trading on that thesis.

In this forum, I'm more interested in hearing what folks are DOING, than what they think they might do...

Don't believe we will see "time to buy" until maybe late '09 to mid '10 and even then - very limited choices/options that will prove to be more than modestly profitable in any short term or mid term.

DOW continues to 'hold on' in the face of continued 'bad' news for which I have no good explanation at this point.

I believe that when the market FINALLY begins to properly factor in the enormity of the situation, we may see weeks on end where daily trading stops are hit on the way down.

Other than playing with a couple inexpensive stocks in small dollar amounts, it's laddered in short-term T-Bills. Have even resisted the temptation to chase a larger return via CD's fitting the characteristics Lanier Boater describes.

Even though inflation is likely to eat away at the balances (returning around 1.5 - 1.8), at least I will be leaving the dance with the one I brought!

There will be a time to re-enter, but I am not sure it will even be equities at that point unless you have a 20+ yr horizon in front of you. 'Recovery' from the trough will be painfully slow in my opinion and returning to "Historical Avg Market Returns" may well take many many years.

I will be watching yields on longer term Treasury debt as well as carefully chosen municipal bonds and corporate bonds for opportunities in time. I don't think it will be out of the question to see returns near or north of 10% to be had as everyone chases a limited pool of available capital.

If so, I personally won't need much market exposure to achieve my goals. Steady 8-12% returns plugged into my models should put me into a comfortable position with options when retirement becomes a consideration.

U-Shaped vs. V-Shaped I believe will define this period, with no idea how long we suffer the trough of the U.

P/E's will return to 'rational' multiples and remember, you must actually have 'P'. Looking to the future vs. the past to make predictions will make far more sense for some time.

Given current consumer confidence, climbing unemployment, lack of savings, maxed out CC debt, lack of 'equity' in any real assets to speak of paint a pretty bleak picture relative to options we have for spending our way out of this.

I will predict we will see some version of a 'New Deal' with many believing it is actually 'new'. So many have so apparently chosen to forget the lessons we should have learned previously. Dismantling pieces like Glass-Steagal were at the very forefront of this particular mess.

I believe you will see us ultimately re-allocate $$ we currently spread all over the rest of the world for various reasons to spending at home for infrastructure and other programs similar to those times.

For those who may say that it was actually WWII and the spending that went along with it that actually brought us out before, I so hope we don't have to repeat that 'cycle' as well.

Negative? Yep. Realistic? Guess that is up to the eye of the beholder.

Currently, sitting tight with my finger on the 401k Drop Out button. I'd rather have my money in something a little more liquid than into investments that do not allow much flexibility and are getting somewhat squirrely with a dark cloud looming.
A little while ago, I weighted in foreign and was doing well with emerging and growth funds, but they are starting to become a little ominous. I only hold a small amount of cash currently, but that worries me as well given the loss of value in the dollar.
I have been watching the commodities markets and depending where things fall in mid late Q3, may pull the trigger on construction based goods such as metals, and plastic resins.

Got some balz and want to make a quick profit in commodities? Watch plastics, composites, ceramics, right about the time of the Olympics. Many businesses are shutting down there a couple weeks previous to and during the Olympics. Stockpiles of resins and raw materials will increase during that time, and prices may fall somewhat. But the big story will be the demand upon re-start to rebuild inventory and most likely drive pricing up for a short while. Just a thought, may or may not happen, just something I have been keeping an eye on.

I recently bought a couple of technology stocks that are doing relatively well, both of which I believe have very good potential. I didn't realize there was a subjective bar that had to be met in order to participate here.

So - what we're saying is that for the next couple of years at least, there's NO money making, NO opportunities for growth, the world is coming to a quick end and the country is on its death bed? Seems pretty cynical to me.

There is always money to be made. Just gotta make sure you are on the correct side of it whether it be rising or falling. I hate trying to catch a falling knife.

Fertilizer stocks have been on a tear lately. Take a gander at MOS.

Mark

Not at all, Mike. There's a bunch of money to be made here--but trading a bear market is dicey and care must be taken. Corrections tend to be much more violent in a bear market and can take your head off---but the cliff dives are worse for long investors.

The perma-bulls calling market "bottoms" in housing and equities are either deaf, blind, or liars---or some combination. Equities markets will, eventually, line up with fundamentals. And fundamentals are currently awful--or worse.

There are no subjective qualifications for posting in these forums. But bullish calls without explanation will be questioned closely. If your thesis is "now is an excellent time to buy" you need to have a rational basis for that call and a willingness to share your own moves in that direction.

Just holding on the "pucker factor", so to speak.

??

I have moved most of my 401K investments into the safest fund I can put them in. It might be a bit conservative, but for now, I am sort of on the sidelines, watching the game.

What type of fund are you using, Al?

So.....



Plus the original comments by MarkB - we have broken through that threshold...

Are we finally going to see fundamentals and facts play a role in market valuation?

Will we still see a couple rallies on the way down?

Looking for love at 9000.

Wish I had the cojones and knowledge to know how to play this short without taking a bath. I know what I believe 'should' happen, yet this is a 20 headed snake that is capable of biting you in many ways.

For now, I sit by on the sidelines and wait/watch the carnage.

Trading a bear market is incredibly risky. The spikes and head fakes can be, and often are, huge (and expensive if you're short). It can be entertaining---but not with the rent money!

I couldn't watch today's action from the terminal----but it's been fun to read about...

A little birdie got me in to a full cash position for the majority of my holdings and also in to a nice position in SKF a while back - Not for the faint of heart - take a lookie at the the 3 month chart

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SKF#c...ource=undefined

Wish I had the huvoes to have thrown more at it.

Next resistance is approx the 11,000 mark. My charting software is not working (need to upgrade)so I can't lay the Fib lines down, so I am not sure where those resistances are.

Gold is well into the $900 range and other commodities as well.

Mark

I've lightened up my positions considerably. There's no fundamental reason to expect a retracement here, but I'm suspicious of a concerted 'stick-save' at this point.

Some are saying bank stocks are oversold, but until their balance sheets are a bit less opaque, I'm pretty sure I don't agree with that analysis...