LOL, I like being the non-conformist around here I guess.

I think in 2 years we will be talking about $130/bbl oil like we talked about dotcoms in the late 90's.

In spite of the coming-of-age of China and India, not much has changed to drive oil prices to their current high except for speculation and manipulation.

Both of those forces can and will change on a whim and a frenzy.

Laugh now at me, but don't give up your F-150 for a Hybrid just yet.


Bill

Consider it done

Bill as I have said it before, I'll say it again, If I ever meet one of these speculators that is agreeing to pay these artifically high prices for a barrel of crude oil, I will punch him/her right in the face. Twice if they laught at me after the first punch!

I sure hope you are right.

And actually, if the U.S. just even bluffed for a while that we were going to allow more drilling in our own country, the price would come down before the first driller touched a site.
So come on Sierra Club and others, let's just "pretend" for a while that ANWR will be drilled. it might get your Prius' gas under $3.00/gal!

I never try to foresee the future as I always get burnt. Just go with the flow.
Are you going short crude then troop?

Mark

The only thing I'm going short on is my paycheck. If I had $$ to invest in commodities, I wouldn't be considering selling Aloha2.

But I think you will see $55-60/bbl oil within 18 months.

As I have said in previous posts, and I alluded to in the thread below, I agree price manipulation is the key....

Oil Price Manipulation thread

I've been short oil since $120. I think troop has this exactly right. Demand destruction is rampant right now.

Just posted this on another thread.

-------------------------------------------

Just caught this on CNBC and thought it may be of interest to some. I thought the 2nd half of the video clip was especially interesting where he mentions that the fundamentals always look good in bubbles. He also mentions economic cycles and China.

Doug Mackay, Broadleaf Partners on CNBC re: commodities

related video clip

I've heard the shortage of sweet crude (what is traded at the NYMEX and the type typically cited in the news), plenty of sour crude mentioned before. (2nd clip)

Who knows how to invest in a way that might take advantage of this? What refiners are best postioned to handle sour crude or switch to handling it? I would think they would have the best margins?...unless the additional refining cost of processing the sour more that eats up the extra?

Sure hope I'm right about this, because I just paid $435/gal for regular today.

Well, you few would agree with my dad.

Unfortunately, i'm not as optimistic. I think $5+ a gallon will be here in less than 24 months.

Come on out to California. It's here now in some locations.

Then $6 for you Cali crazies.

Kidding about the crazy part....

Found diesel for only $5.39/gallon the other day. Glad Helga gets close to 30 mpg!

But I'll stand by my support of Troop's hypothesis. A very significant percentage of the runup from $70/barrel has been fueled by 'hot money' speculation. I think we are at (or past) market peaks for a number of volatile commodities. Play the chart you've got---but the fundamentals won't be denied indefinitely.

FLB: Slightly off topic but do you smell a 10/29/29 boiling again?

I don't think we'll necessarily see a cliff-dive from the stock market indices, if that's your question. Possible, certainly, but not at all certain.

Keep in mind that the period immediately after the stock market crash in '29 was NOTHING like the depression that followed, for reasons far beyond equity investment values.

It also bears keeping in mind that we, as a nation and as individuals, were SAVERS in 1929. We are now nearly universally DEBTORS, both individually and collectively---so we go into this thing on far dicier footing than in that not-so-distant episode.

One year ago, I projected a likelihood of a major recession and possible repeat of the long, slow grinding depression of the 30s. There was a far greater opportunity to avoid the worst of it then than now. And the longer the 'hide the sausage' shenanigans are allowed to continue, the sharper and deeper the trough will be.

A year ago my outlook for financials was dour. I'd categorize it as bleak (or worse) today.

When the choice was 8-Track or cassette I choose 8-Track.
When it was Beta or VHS, I went with Beta.
When it was Blue-Ray or the other, I went with the other.
When it was OS2 Warp or XP I went with OS2.

I have a perfect track record.

Now, if we can get the members of this board to back me financially
I will buy up all the oil futures I can. This will surely drive down the price of crude.

Are you all talking a huge correction all at once, or a slow decent?

Which market are you asking about?

Real Estate values have diminished faster than ever before measured in this country---with a significant portion of the causative inputs still to come.

Equity market indices are down significantly from their historic highs, but have not yet registered the credit crisis input (due in no small part to obvious "engineering").

The credit markets are in absolute disrepair, with major portions functionally illiquid.

They're all related, but the rate that failures in one area register in another is not immediately discernable.

Today's downgrades of the mono-line insurers is going to be huge---but whether later today or after next quarter's reporting period is hard to say.

I was refering to oil futures. I thought this thread was about crashing oil prices. Did I ask in the wrong spot?

Thanks for the clarification, 2suns. The topic had veered a bit and I didn't realize you were back on topic.

And I WISH I had an answer for your question---but my thesis, if true, could result in either scenario.

Where is your thesis, FLB. Did I miss it somewhere?

It will happen.

Little bit of news this afternoon makes me suspect a market-altering event COULD be happening.



This little announcement was accompanied by a >$6 spike in oil futures. hmmmmm

Coupled with the recent resignation of Admiral Fallon (one of the few LOUD voices against an attack on Iran) and the leak last week about senators 'considering' a press release over an Iran invasion, and you've got to at least consider the possibility that the resignations and the oil speculation are related.

Needless to say, and attack on Iran (by either the US or Israel) is going to have a very significant impact on the price of oil. Bears watching, guys...

What would be behind the motivation to lead the country to a new war front during the waining days of the current administration?

Dam good question, Cycle. I don't for one minute believe the cover story of fearing Iran's nuclear developments. But that's what's floating this rumor.

Posted about an hour ago on Asian Times is a pretty good analysis by a financial expert based in the US. Too political to post, but you should be able to find it on Google news without too much trouble if you're interested.