LOL, I like being the non-conformist around here I guess.
I think in 2 years we will be talking about $130/bbl oil like we talked about dotcoms in the late 90's.
In spite of the coming-of-age of China and India, not much has changed to drive oil prices to their current high except for speculation and manipulation.
Both of those forces can and will change on a whim and a frenzy.
Laugh now at me, but don't give up your F-150 for a Hybrid just yet.
Bill as I have said it before, I'll say it again, If I ever meet one of these speculators that is agreeing to pay these artifically high prices for a barrel of crude oil, I will punch him/her right in the face. Twice if they laught at me after the first punch!
I sure hope you are right.
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I'm just happy to be here!
And actually, if the U.S. just even bluffed for a while that we were going to allow more drilling in our own country, the price would come down before the first driller touched a site. So come on Sierra Club and others, let's just "pretend" for a while that ANWR will be drilled. it might get your Prius' gas under $3.00/gal!
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I'm just happy to be here!
I've been short oil since $120. I think troop has this exactly right. Demand destruction is rampant right now.
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"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. If I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, you say I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand familiesYou are a den of vipers and thieves." -Andrew Jackson
Just caught this on CNBC and thought it may be of interest to some. I thought the 2nd half of the video clip was especially interesting where he mentions that the fundamentals always look good in bubbles. He also mentions economic cycles and China.
#410792 - 06/03/0810:09 AMRe: I predict...oil prices will crash.
[Re: athiker]
athiker
Admiral
Registered: 12/02/03
Posts: 2416
Loc: Lake Norman, NC
I've heard the shortage of sweet crude (what is traded at the NYMEX and the type typically cited in the news), plenty of sour crude mentioned before. (2nd clip)
Who knows how to invest in a way that might take advantage of this? What refiners are best postioned to handle sour crude or switch to handling it? I would think they would have the best margins?...unless the additional refining cost of processing the sour more that eats up the extra?
Found diesel for only $5.39/gallon the other day. Glad Helga gets close to 30 mpg!
But I'll stand by my support of Troop's hypothesis. A very significant percentage of the runup from $70/barrel has been fueled by 'hot money' speculation. I think we are at (or past) market peaks for a number of volatile commodities. Play the chart you've got---but the fundamentals won't be denied indefinitely.
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"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. If I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, you say I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand familiesYou are a den of vipers and thieves." -Andrew Jackson
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