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#413659 - 06/13/08 06:04 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: seadog]
MarkHB Offline
Dressed for dinner
Admiral

Registered: 09/12/03
Posts: 4805
Loc: CA
Is it any wonder, no new refineries are currently under construction in the US. Cheaper to import.

Mark
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#416244 - 06/23/08 03:16 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: MarkHB]
athiker Offline
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Registered: 12/02/03
Posts: 2412
Loc: Lake Norman, NC
Scary oil stat of the day courtesy of CNBC:

Annual oil consumption per capital in barrels:

USA......25
Japan....14
China......2
India.......1

Here is a link showing the country ranking in 2004 that generally agrees with those numbers. Daily oil consumption per 1000 ppl

In that link the U.S. is #15, Japan is #32, China #128 and India #149

To help put these numbers in perspective here is total use by country.

Daily Oil Consumption by country

USA is #1 followed by China and Japan with India coming in at #6. I'm unsure of the year of the date.

USA......7.57 billion barrels per year
China....2.38 billion
Japan....2.04 billion
India.....0.89 billion

Just for a little fun with numbers. If the developed countries of the US and Japan could increase oil use efficiency and/or move some oil use over to other sources such as nukes, etc. to the tune of 10% reduction in oil use, current world use could accomodate a nearly 30% increase in Chindia oil use. The bad news is that's only Chindia moving from 3 barrels per person use per year to 4!

Now if we could cut the use per person in the developed countries of the US and Japan by 10% then current world oil use could accomodate a more than doubling (130%) increase in use per person in Chindia (3 to 6.9).

Warning...rambling thoughts to follow: Of course there are other major current users and up and coming users in the world as well that would affect this exercise. If and when China and India ramp up to our use levels it will be interesting times...obviously messing around at the edges of changes in energy use and sources is not gonna cut it. Their increase isn't going to happen overnight either though for the simple reason it can't...we don't have the supply. If supply is contrained due to the lack of switching to other energy sources, in the end whatever economy can most efficiently and productively use oil energy will be the one that can afford to pay for it. Hopefully other sources will be developed at a competitive cost as the timeline of developing countries increased oil usage plays out...till then a recession/depression would whack demand.








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#420277 - 07/08/08 12:12 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: athiker]
WaterMutt Offline
Bilge Rat
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Registered: 01/14/04
Posts: 10036
Loc: Massachusetts
Oil down 6.3%
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#420346 - 07/08/08 04:29 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: WaterMutt]
D-Rod Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 06/25/05
Posts: 7190
Only $9 in two days.

There was one day not long ago it went up $14 in ONE day.

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#420355 - 07/08/08 05:26 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: D-Rod]
Nu2BoatN Offline
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Registered: 01/17/03
Posts: 2698
Loc: Riverside, So Cal
Keep pressure on to drill offshore and watch it continue to come down.

Heard a caller on Rush this morning... he was an oil guy, still had a brother's brotherinlaw on the rigs along the gulf coast. There are literally hundreds of rigs offline because of the cost of permits and the lengthy process it takes. These were Katrina casualties. If only Congress would streamline that process!
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#420381 - 07/08/08 07:31 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: D-Rod]
BillyB Offline
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Registered: 10/29/04
Posts: 7364
Loc: Peoria, Illinois
Originally Posted By: D-Rod
Only $9 in two days.

There was one day not long ago it went up $14 in ONE day.


True, but it's under $4/gallon again across the river in Pekin, IL, so I'll take it.
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#420403 - 07/08/08 08:36 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: BillyB]
Bonesian Offline
Vice Admiral

Registered: 04/05/08
Posts: 271
Loc: N.E. Illinois
As I said in this thread.... and other threads

Oil pricing

Ever heard of "Bakken Formation"? (sp?... at the moment) Do a Google search.

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#420551 - 07/09/08 01:24 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Bonesian]
Indyboater Offline
Admiral

Registered: 01/19/03
Posts: 2176
Loc: Indianapolis
I'm not sure about pricing, but oil has got to be starting to pile up at US ports.

The pipeline to ship all that stuff has got to be huge, and when people cut consumption by 5-10% then in about 20 days you have an extra day or two supply on hand.

I heard somewhere that the shipment of oil takes something like 60 days. So if you are shipping oil, pretty soon you'll have a whole bunch on hand.

That means somebody is holding the bag on a bunch of expensive oil and will need to get rid of it.

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#420560 - 07/09/08 02:11 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Indyboater]
Bowline Offline
What's higher than
Admiral

Registered: 01/14/03
Posts: 4177
Loc: Kansas City, MO
They'll just cut back on production in order to maintain the high price. The Iranians testing missles isn't helping matters.
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#420609 - 07/09/08 05:38 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Bowline]
D-Rod Online   content
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Registered: 06/25/05
Posts: 7190
A fairly high ranking oil exe for Conoco -Phillips told my last week that there are hundreds of oil tankers sitting in ports with no where to unload their oil. All storage tanks are full...

Low gas prices are not the answer, though.

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#420635 - 07/09/08 07:19 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: D-Rod]
Finger Lakes Boater Administrator Offline
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Registered: 12/17/02
Posts: 8079
Loc: Sammamish, Washington
Originally Posted By: D-Rod
Low gas prices are not the answer, though.


What part of the supply/demand equation do you not get?
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#420660 - 07/09/08 08:42 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Finger Lakes Boater]
trooplewis Offline
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Registered: 11/10/06
Posts: 3223
Loc: San Diego
Quote:
What part of the supply/demand equation do you not get?


With utilities and oil, the equation is 3-part, not 2-part.

Supply/demand/bohica





can I say that on babc?

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#420665 - 07/09/08 08:57 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Finger Lakes Boater]
D-Rod Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 06/25/05
Posts: 7190
Originally Posted By: Finger Lakes Boater
Originally Posted By: D-Rod
Low gas prices are not the answer, though.


What part of the supply/demand equation do you not get?


Do you feel like going through this every 10-15 years?

What part about that vulnerability do you not get? :-D

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#420792 - 07/10/08 11:50 AM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: D-Rod]
Bankonit27 Offline
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Registered: 09/08/03
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#420804 - 07/10/08 12:20 PM Re: I predict...oil prices will crash. [Re: Bankonit27]
D-Rod Online   content
Admiral

Registered: 06/25/05
Posts: 7190
That graph has oil in the 90 dollar range.

Its 137ish today!

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