One word when it comes to the US economy; resilient.

Things go good, things go bad, life and the economy go on.

OK, Troop. Are we still considering the original post unread by you (as you first posted)?

Meaningless platitudes about the general resilience of the US economy are one thing. But in the context of the thread, your comment is pretty silly. Discuss the topic or don't--your option. But don't patronize those who care to examine the topic at hand with thoughtless commentary.

So, if we are not gloom and doom about where the economy is going, we should not participate? There is nothing wrong with platitudes, and I honestly feel that you owe Troop an apology. The issue is whether or not the negative nellies will create the very same conditions that they predict. Society ignores the rules of common sense by listening to those who are trying to get them to waste their money. Then when things get a little tougher, they listen to the chicken littles about how the sky is falling.

Yes there may be some tough times ahead. How tough is up to the public confidence level. If they stop spending because they are afraid to, then we will hit a recession. If they are more discriminant about their spending, then things will make some adjustments. We may be in for a down period, but only a panic will make it a crisis. And it is the so-called experts who predict disasters who create the panic.

The economy is only a bi-product of a much bigger problem in the States.

Oh, boy.

I am not saying any more. I don't suggest popping much more corn unless you just like to "waste".

That was nowhere suggested or implied.



You are entitled to your opinion.



That very well may be YOUR issue, seadog, but it has nothing to do with this discussion or the post that started the thread. In fact, your entire contribution to this thread makes it clear that you either didn't read, or read and didn't understand, the original post. Perhaps you could reload a bit and tell us what part of Roubini's analysis you find faulty?



Sounds like you haven't learned anything since this thing began..."sky is falling?" I suppose you mean by that comment that the various pieces of news quoted from the financial press in the last few months are no big deal? Are you the same guy who told me a year ago that real estate prices never go down? Wake up, Dude. The sky isn't falling--asset values are. If you have none, or care not, nothing to worry about.



You see? We do agree on something!



No, silly. It's up to the public PURSE!



Let me see if I have this straight: if people spend less because they're afraid that will affect the economy differently than if they spend less out of prudence? Poor logic, at best.



That is your, unsupported, opinion. In the opinion of quite a number of highly informed individuals a crisis of epic proportions is already at work in the financial markets. If you prefer to look away, I have no quarrel with that. If, however, you'd like to opine that there is nothing seriously amiss, I will simply suggest that you bring some data to support your thesis. Casual bromides dismissing serious inquiry will not be treated lightly.



Balderdash! Panic is that state one achieves when blissful ignorance is visited by realization. Don't worry, seadog, your turn is coming.

So pls remember that Houdini is just one opinion again.
First this loss in the mortgage markets was imminent and known, if you spend more than you have, it is a no brainer. Same goes for governments except they have different mechanisms and thry to make sure the international markets (those who we are buying frm like China and the Arabs) will sign up as lenders. The worst that can happen them is that we stop buying.

Second, it is not only the US who will pay for this, a lot of the losses are being logged elsewhere in the world, the mortgages have been sold to investors who did not even know they were buying in US based risks.

Third, every problem offers and opportunity, and the economic resilience is fantastic over here.

Fourth, the population growth will by default (illegal or legal) result in new business opps and need for eeven more housing and commercial buildings etc...

Fifth, the biggest risk we are running is that the government does not attract any people with any sense because of the ACLU and alike that just makes everyone look like a fool when taking public office. Look at the jokers playing poker with the country's future on the campaign trail.so much for that.

SIxth, NOW and a little later this year is a great buyers market for housing, I am in that market and will certainly take advantage of it and I am sure there are enough people with good sense and a solid economy (like most on this board)

What is so good that all in the rest of the world want to come here and work for less and thrive.

so in conclusion; out with gloom and doom, in with industrious builders of the economy and value for everyone. Hail those who care for themselves and let Darwin loose on the worst ones.

Admiral is yanking me to the movies have to run....

h

I have read the article you started this with. I just do not agree with it as truth. I do not claim to be an expert on finance, but I am versed on history. History has shown that the finance experts have their focus too narrow to fully see the problems. Or should I say, they see only the problems without the promise. The cataclysmic events that was the Crash of 29 was monumental, but it was the panic that did the most damage. A lot of companies survived the crash and were better for the lessons learned.

If we get in a full blown panic, yes it will be hard times, but we will survive. If we do not panic, then it will sort itself out and maybe some good changes will be made. The United States has dictated the fortunes of the planet for a long time. We are overdue to lose the status we enjoy, but that does not mean we are down. It just means that we have to make adjustments. The only people that are at risk are those who are walking a fine line, whether they know it or not. Having your assets tied up in loans while working at a job that is dependent on the economy is always a risk. Some more than others. But the future also will have those companies that will get rid of waste, those that will be innovative, and those that will develop products for the future. And hopefully, we will take control of some of those areas that we have ignored over the past few decades.

Thanks for that thoughtful reply, seadog.

For the record, I have absolutely NO ISSUE with differences of opinion, and I'm happy to hear yours. What I won't settle for, however, are casual toss-offs offered in response to serious discussions.

If Troop is offended by my call out, he's welcome to respond, publicly or privately. And he's more than welcome to expound his point of view, but not to dismiss, unread, a seriously considered scholastic piece with bromides shot from the hip.

These threads have a long 'memory' and I'm more than willing to let events play out as they will, comparing notes down the road. The purpose in having them at all is simply to expose markets frequently ignored by most that are changing the economic realities we usually take for granted.

OK, for the financially naive, how does one do this?

In the last 6 months, I've paid my house and camp off, and brought a suitcase full of Franklins to the Caddy dealer for the wife's new car.

Business is great (for now). All equipment, inventory and building renovations are paid off.

Things never looked better for us (knock on wood).

We never had the RE boom that other parts of the country had, so we didn't have the bust either. It is and will effect us, but not as much.

Where should my mutual-fund retirement 201k be? Any chance of saving what's left of it before the big one hits?

The only responsible answer to that excellent question is this: "Consult a qualified investment advisor. I am NOT that, nor should anything I say be interpreted as investment advice. Risk tolerance, financial goals, and resource allocation are extremely personal and specific to each individual and family. Find a qualified individual who can consult with you considering your total financial situation."

You forgot "YMMV"!

And, "Closed course. Trained driver. Don't try this at home."

No apology necessary, but I stand by "resilient" (typo excluded) after skipping thru the major points.

I heard it with Reaganomics, I heard it in the early 90's housing crunch, I heard it after the fall of the "dot com" era, I'm tired of hearing it and it amounts to nothing other than a short and well-needed correction.

Someday, one of the "predictors" will probably be right, I have a pessimistic side that says the world will not go on like it is now ad infinitum. In fact that is probably a result more of my biblical training than anything else. But (as with gloomy economists) I still shy away from hard core eschatologists that predict that these are the "last days" because I have heard that a number of times (every time there is a middle eastern war or an oil embargo) as well.

Weathermen* and economics advisers have about the same chance of being right or wrong, and it was usually on the advice of their cohorts that most of the banks made the greedy and incredibly stupid decisions that brought us to this point.

* "They are right too often to ignore, but wrong to often to rely on"